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Updated – Wall Street Observer

Wall Street Observer

Wall Street Observer

U.S. retail sales in 2021 expected to jump on vaccine, stimulus in positive sign for economy – NRF

By Melissa Fares and Aditi Sebastian

(Reuters) – U.S. retail sales could rise as much as 8.2% to more than $4.33 trillion this year as more people get the COVID-19 vaccine and the economy reopens, the National Retail Federation (NRF) said on Wednesday.

The economy is expected to see its fastest growth in over two decades as the rollout of the vaccine to consumers should permit accelerated growth during the mid-year, the trade group said. NRF expects the overall economy to gain between 220,000 and 300,000 jobs per month in 2021.

“We are very optimistic that healthy consumer fundamentals, pent-up demand and widespread distribution of the vaccine will generate increased economic growth, retail sales and consumer spending,” NRF Chief Executive Matthew Shay said in a statement.(https://bit.ly/3kiGzRI)

Preliminary results show retail sales for 2020 grew 6.7% to $4.06 trillion, above the trade body’s forecast of at least 3.5% growth, NRF said. The retail sales numbers exclude automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.

U.S. retail sales are expected to rise between 6.5% and 8.2% in 2021, the NRF said.

Deemed “essential, Walmart and rivals Target and Best Buy were permitted to stay open throughout the pandemic, unlike others, including Macy’s.

The U.S. department store chain said while reporting company earnings on Tuesday that it has invested tremendously in its online business, as virus-wary shoppers have opted to stay home to make their purchases rather than leisurely shop in-store.

“We do anticipate that customers will be increasingly more comfortable in public spaces as vaccine distribution reaches scale,” said Macy’s Chief Financial Officer Adrian Mitchell.

New rounds of stimulus-driven consumer spending in the coming months would also strengthen retail sales, should the U.S. Congress pass the Biden administration’s support plan that includes sending a $1,400 check to households.

The NRF also said online sales, which are included in the overall number for 2021, were expected to increase between 18% and 23% to between $1.14 trillion and $1.19 trillion. In 2020, online and other non-store sales jumped 21.9 percent to $969.4 billion as consumers opted to stay home and place their orders online to curb the spread of the virus.

The trade body’s forecast follows other estimates from companies like consumer research firm Customer Growth Partners (CGP).

Boosted by rounds of stimulus checks and a “new-found momentum across income levels,” CGP said earlier this month that retail sales in 2021 will total a record $4.26 trillion, up 8.1% from $3.94 trillion in 2020.

(Reporting by Aditi Sebastian in Bengaluru and Melissa Fares in New York; Editing by Shailesh Kuber, Jonathan Oatis, Ben Klayman and Aurora Ellis)

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Nasdaq futures fall 1% as tech sell-off set to deepen

(Reuters) – Futures tracking the Nasdaq 100 index fell 1% on Wednesday, sliding for a seventh straight session as investors swapped growth-oriented technology shares with stocks that stand to gain the most from an economic rebound.

Up to Tuesday’s close, the broader technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite index had lost 4.5% since Feb. 12, compared with a 0.3% rise in the blue-chip Dow. The benchmark S&P 500 slipped 1.4% in the same period.

By 1:40 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 109.5 points, or 0.83%, Dow e-minis were down 100 points, or 0.32%, and S&P 500 e-minis were down 15.5 points, or 0.4%.

(Reporting by Sagarika Jaisinghani in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)

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Goldman-backed ReNew plugs into U.S. public market with $8 billion blank check deal

By Anirban Sen and Noor Zainab Hussain

(Reuters) – ReNew Power will go public through an $8 billion merger with a blank-check firm in the biggest deal in the fast-growing clean energy sector in India, allowing the country’s largest renewable energy firm to grow capacity over the next few years.

The deal will be financed with cash proceeds of $1.2 billion, including $855 million in investments from serial blank-check dealmaker Chamath Palihapitiya, funds managed by BlackRock and Sylebra Capital, ReNew Power said on Wednesday.

Founded in 2011, ReNew Power counts Goldman Sachs and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board among its prominent investors. It owns and operates solar energy projects for more than 150 commercial and industrial customers across India.

ReNew, which currently has a 10% market share of India’s renewable energy market, is among a wave of clean-energy firms poised to benefit from the country’s push into renewable energy.

India, the world’s third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, wants to raise its renewable energy capacity to 500 gigawatts (GW), or 40% of total capacity, by 2030.

ReNew’s total operational clean energy capacity is currently over 5 GW and it has an aggregate capacity of about 10 GW. It also counts Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Global Environment Fund and JERA Co Inc, a consortium of two of the biggest Japanese utilities, as investors.

The company expects to grow its capacity to about 19 GW by 2025, with cash raised from the deal to be used to fund the roll-out, Sumant Sinha, chairman & chief executive officer of ReNew, told Reuters.

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are serving as financial advisers to ReNew, with Morgan Stanley also acting as a joint placement agent to the blank check company RMG Acquisition Corp II on the PIPE deal.

Special purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, such as RMG raise money through an initial public offering to merge with a privately held company that then becomes publicly traded.

RMG’s shares were up about 3% in New York. The combined entity is expected to be listed on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol “RNW”.

“We had been looking at trying to get an IPO done, and preferably from our standpoint, in the overseas market, just because they understand renewables better,” Sinha said.

The amount of environmental, social and governance capital in overseas markets also influenced ReNew Power’s decision to list in the U.S., Sinha added.

Palihapitiya, a former Facebook executive, also led the PIPE (private investment in public equity) round at SoftBank-backed robotics firm Berkshire Grey, which earlier on Wednesday agreed to go public through a merger with a blank-check firm.

(Reporting by Anirban Sen and Noor Zainab Hussain in Bengaluru and Sudarshan Varadhan in New Delhi; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli, Saumyadeb Chakrabarty and Shounak Dasgupta)

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UK’s Lloyds targets wealth push and office cuts after profit drop

By Iain Withers and Lawrence White

LONDON (Reuters) – Lloyds Banking Group’s outgoing Chief Executive António Horta-Osório set out fresh targets to expand the lender’s insurance and wealth business and further cut costs, as the bank resumed a dividend despite a sharp fall in profits for 2020.

Britain’s biggest domestic lender reported pretax profits of 1.2 billion pounds ($1.7 billion), well down on 4.4 billion pounds the previous year, after pandemic lockdowns shrank household spending and drove up provisions for bad loans.

But it still beat the average of analyst forecasts of 905 million pounds.

The strategy update showed Lloyds aimed to offset pressure on profits, including from wafer thin central bank interest rates, by axing costs further and increasing income from fee-based products such as wealth management and corporate banking.

The squeeze led net income to fall nearly 3 billion pounds over the year to 14.4 billion.

Horta-Osório said the bank would increase funds from insurance and wealth customers by 25 billion pounds by 2023 and expands its currency and rates services for corporate customers.

Lloyds will also cut office space by 20% within three years, the second British lender to unveil such plans this week after HSBC announced a 40% cut to its footprint as banks look to capitalise on remote working brought on by the pandemic.

Lloyds said its overall costs would be trimmed below 7.5 billion pounds by the end of this year and it would invest 900 million pounds on digitising more of its services.

The bank’s shares were up 2% at 09.47 GMT, amid a 0.6% fall in the wider FTSE 350 index of banks.

“Faced with lower margins, higher volumes seem to be the answer for Lloyds,” said Susannah Streeter, analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

Horta-Osório, who led a turnaround at the bank after its bailout in the financial crisis, is leaving Lloyds after a decade to stand for election as chairman of Credit Suisse in April.

HSBC executive Charlie Nunn is set to replace Horta-Osório, starting in August.

ENCOURAGING SIGNS

Similar to the situation at rivals HSBC, NatWest and Barclays, Lloyds’ profits were dented by bad loan provisions.

Lloyds set aside 4.2 billion pounds to cover loans expected to sour, although this was less than the 4.5 billion to 5.5 billion pound range previously given.

Lloyds Chief Financial Officer William Chalmers said the pace of Britain’s vaccine rollout and the government’s roadmap to phase out lockdowns were encouraging and paved the way for better UK growth than the 3% core forecast by the bank for 2021.

The bank said it would pay a 0.57 pence dividend per share, the maximum allowed by the Bank of England and above a forecast of 0.53 pence.

Chalmers said the bank would consider an interim dividend halfway through the year and revert to a “stable dividend policy” from next year depending on economic conditions.

The bank grew its mortgage book by 7.2 billion pounds, as it capitalised on a pandemic-driven boom in home sales.

The bank’s core capital ratio, a key measure of financial resilience, increased to 16.2% compared to 15.2% in September.

Costs for past misdeeds chipped into profits, including an 85 million pound charge for processing delays on a final batch of mis-sold payment insurance claims and 159 million pounds for compensation and costs for historic fraud at its HBOS Reading branch.

Horta-Osório’s pay package for 2020 fell to 3.4 million pound, after he and other executives waived bonuses for the year due to the pandemic. He was paid 4.7 million pounds the previous year.

(Reporting by Iain Withers and Lawrence White; Editing by Edmund Blair)

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Turkish court convicts executive, two jet pilots in Ghosn escape trial

By Ezgi Erkoyun

ISTANBUL (Reuters) – A Turkish court convicted an executive of Turkish jet company MNG and two pilots for migrant smuggling over their role in flying former Nissan Motor Co Ltd Chairman Carlos Ghosn out of Japan during his escape to Lebanon just over a year ago.

The court sentenced them to four years and two months jail, although their lawyer said they were not expected to serve time in prison as they had already been detained for several months.

Two other pilots and a flight attendant were acquitted, while charges were dropped against another flight attendant.

Ghosn, once a leading light of the global car industry, was arrested in Japan in late 2018 and charged with underreporting his salary and using company funds for personal purposes, charges he denies.

The ousted chairman of the alliance of Renault, Nissan Motor Co and Mitsubishi Motors Corp had been awaiting trial under house arrest in Japan when he escaped in December 2019 via Istanbul to Beirut, his childhood home.

Ghosn, who holds French, Lebanese and Brazilian citizenship, is still a fugitive and remains in Beirut, where he announced several months ago that he was launching a university business programme. Lebanon does not have an extradition treaty with Japan.

An executive from Turkish private jet operator MNG Jet and four pilots were detained by Turkish authorities in early January 2020 and charged with migrant smuggling.

The lawyer for one of the convicted pilots, Erem Yucel, told reporters they would appeal the verdict.

Convicted pilot Noyan Pasin said that staff and officials had not suspected anything was wrong with the flight, either in Japan or Turkey, so it was wrong to single out the pilots.

“We were expected to be suspicious and were sentenced because we weren’t suspicious,” he told reporters.

The defendants were released in July, when the first hearing was held, and are not expected to return to jail due to time they served. Japan is not known to have requested their extradition to face charges there.

The Ghosn saga has shaken the global auto industry, at one point jeopardising the Renault-Nissan alliance which he masterminded, and increased scrutiny of Japan’s judicial system.

Renault and Nissan have struggled to recover profitability following his tenure, during which both automakers say Ghosn focused too much on expanding sales and market share.

(Reporting by Ezgi Erkoyun; Writing by Ali Kucukgocmen; Editing by Daren Butler, Jonathan Spicer and Angus MacSwan)

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Apple supplier Foxconn teams up with Fisker to make electric vehicles

By Akanksha Rana and Ben Klayman

(Reuters) – Electric-car maker Fisker Inc said it will work with Apple Inc supplier Foxconn to produce more than 250,000 vehicles a year beginning in late 2023, sending its shares up 18%.

The deal, codenamed “Project PEAR” (Personal Electric Automotive Revolution), is looking at markets globally, including North America, Europe, China and India, Fisker said.

Foxconn, Apple’s main iPhone maker, has ramped up its interest in electric vehicles (EVs) over the past year or so, announcing deals with Chinese electric-car maker Byton and automakers Zhejiang Geely Holding Group and Stellantis NV’s Fiat Chrysler unit.

Sources have said Apple is targeting 2024 to produce a passenger vehicle.

Foxconn aims to provide components or services to 10% of the world’s EVs by 2025 to 2027, Chairman Liu Young-way said in October.

The Taiwan-based company’s approach poses a major threat to established automakers that technology companies such as Apple and other non-traditional players could use contract assemblers as a shortcut to competing in the vehicle market.

“A lot of auto suppliers and manufacturers are looking to get a piece of this explosive growth that’s ahead for the global electric vehcile market,” said CFRA Research analyst Garrett Nelson, who has a “buy” rating on Fisker.

Fisker Chief Executive Henrik Fisker told Reuters that Foxconn is more than just a contract manufacturer under this deal and is developing the vehicle with the startup. He expects the deal to be finalized in the second quarter and to last about seven years. Terms of the deal were not disclosed.

Fisker said the new vehicle would be “futuristic” and “something completely different,” as well as “affordable.” It will launch in the fourth quarter of 2023, and is one of the four vehicles Fisker previously said it would introduce by 2025, he said.

“We’re not just going to make another electric car,” Henrik Fisker said in an interview. “We want to introduce things that probably will almost feel a little scary to some people.”

Where the vehicle will be built by Foxconn has not been set, he said.

The EV sector has been booming, with Tesla Inc still the market leader. On Tuesday, luxury electric-car maker Lucid Motors announced plans to go public by merging with a blank-check company.

The recent runup in valuations of several EV startups, including Nikola Corp and Lordstown Motors Corp, which have yet to produce saleable vehicles or meaningful revenue, has drawn comparisons to the dotcom bubble of 1999 to 2000, with analysts and investors expecting a near-term correction.

Fisker said in December that Canadian auto supplier Magna International Inc would initially manufacture its first vehicle, the Ocean SUV, in Europe. The production is on track to start in the fourth quarter of next year, said Henrik Fisker, who added that the Foxconn deal does not affect those plans.

(Reporting by Akanksha Rana and Tiyashi Datta in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta and Jonathan Oatis)

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Strong German data helps European shares recover; Wall Street futures subdued

By Elizabeth Howcroft

LONDON (Reuters) – European shares rose but U.S. stocks futures pointed to a further tech sell-off in Wall Street, as market participants weighed up signs of economic recovery against fears of inflation.

Falling tech stocks pulled Asian markets lower overnight, as recent gains in U.S. Treasury yields put lofty valuations under pressure.

In his testimony before the U.S. Senate on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell did not seem too worried about rising yields, telling Congress they were a statement on the market’s confidence in the pandemic recovery.

“Powell’s comments reinforce our view that the increase in inflation expectations is most likely transitory and that higher Treasury yields primarily reflect optimism over the economic recovery and the reflation trade,” wrote UBS chief investment officer for global wealth management, Mark Haefele, in a note to clients.

“Investors should expect an extended period in which interest rates remain below inflation.”

European indexes recovered some recent losses, with the STOXX 600 up 0.3% at 1150 GMT, but still down almost 2% from the one-year high it hit last week.

Germany’s DAX was up 0.7%, helped by stronger-than-expected GDP gains in Europe’s largest economy. The FTSE 100 was up 0.1%.

The MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 49 countries, was down 0.3%.

U.S. futures pointed to a mixed open for Wall Street, with S&P 500 e-minis up 0.1% but futures for the tech-heavy Nasdaq in decline for the seventh consecutive day.

“We’re seeing a modest recovery at this point, so there’s still clearly a lot of caution,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA, who said the stock market falls this week were largely a “blip”.

“I think central banks are going to continue to talk down tightening prospects,” he added.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose, although it was below the one-year high it reached on Monday.

Tech stocks are particularly sensitive to rising yields because their value rests heavily on earnings in the future, which are discounted more deeply when bond returns go up.

Bitcoin recovered somewhat, up 3.3% at around $50,481 at 1202 GMT.

“I suspect we are in a bubble in certain places, that stimulus cheques will provide more fire to that at some point but that risk assets are going to be constantly buffeted by the risk of higher yields and inflation regardless of whether it has any structural roots or not,” wrote Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid in a note to clients.

But, one year on from the start of the COVID-19 market crash, financial market participants were generally upbeat about the prospect of vaccine rollouts, lockdowns ending and economies re-opening.

Strong exports and solid construction activity helped the German economy to grow by a stronger-than-expected 0.3% in the final quarter of last year, the Federal Statistics Office said on Wednesday, revising up an earlier estimate.

U.S. consumer confidence increased in February and Britons rushed to book foreign holidays after the government laid out plans to relax restrictions. But EU government leaders will agree on Thursday to maintain curbs on non-essential travel within the bloc.

OANDA’s Craig Erlam said that market consensus is that there will be no further lockdowns in Europe and the United States after the summer.

“Markets are working on the assumption that we are at the end of the tunnel, we’re right near the end of the tunnel, and we’re not going back in,” he said.

The dollar was broadly flat against a basket of currencies , while euro-dollar was slightly up at $1.2166 <EUR=EBS>.

The benchmark 10-year German Bund was steady.

Elsewhere, oil prices rose, although a surprise build-up in U.S. inventories last week limited the gains.

Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures have both risen by around 28% so far in 2021.

Graphic: Up and away: global bond yields on the rise – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/qzjpqgobnpx/bondyields2302.png

(Reporting by Elizabeth Howcroft; Editing by Nick Macfie and Chizu Nomiyama)

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The cash-flush amateurs hunting game cards, handbags and art

By Elizabeth Howcroft and Tommy Wilkes

LONDON (Reuters) – Stocks, bonds and commodities? Old hat.

Once the preserve of the super-rich, or just the eccentric, all kinds of unusual investments from vintage handbags and shares in fine art to rare Pokemon cards are now the happy hunting ground for stuck-at-home punters.

Often armed with lockdown-era savings, such amateur investors are seeking higher returns beyond conventional markets where rocketing prices are prompting warnings of bubbles. They have in turn driven prices on some “alternative” assets up several hundred percent higher in the past year.

And just like the no-fee trading apps such as Robinhood that enabled hordes of small-time equity traders to rattle seasoned hedge funds during the recent “Gamestonks” episodes, digital platforms are empowering wannabe investors with as little as $20 to dabble in collectables.

Value can apparently lurk in all sorts of places.

Collectors’ cards based on Nintendo’s hit 1990s video game, Pokemon, have exploded in value in the past year.

One first-edition of its fire-flying character ‘Charizard’ has rocketed 800% in a year, after YouTube star Logan Paul paid $150,000 for one in October. Recent auctions have valued the card at $300,000.

Chicago-based Pokemon enthusiast Zack Browning, who purchased four of the cards in 2016 for less than $5,000 each, estimates his overall Pokemon collection is now worth $3 million-$5 million.

Browning, who embarked on his Pokemon investing career after studying finance at university, described the game card’s resurgence as “astounding and incredible”. He said that parts of the Pokemon market were more predictable than stock markets, which he said were overvalued.

‘PICK-ME-UPS’

Of course measuring profit or loss on a painting or gauging demand for such collectables is a lot harder than in equity or currency markets, given items often have little in common with each other and can be traded only occasionally, such as by auction.

But a luxury investment index published by compiler Knight Frank on Wednesday showed that although top-end assets such as fine art fell in value during the pandemic, “relatively affordable luxury pick-me-ups” did well.

While the AMR All-Art Index, based on auction prices, fell 11% last year, according to Knight Frank, Hermes’ iconic Birkin handbag first launched in the 1980s, rose 17%, ahead of fine wine and classic cars.

Andrew Shirley, who edits the Knight Frank report, said last year’s most expensive Birkin sold for $200,000, with Asian luxury collectors in Asia “very happy to bid on handbags online”.

For people unable to stump up $200,000 per item, there are platforms such as New York-based Otis which launched in 2019.

These platforms buy anything from a Pokemon card to a basketball jersey signed by basketball legend Kobe Bryant, securitise them and then offer investors shares in the items that they can buy and sell.

Last year, Otis offered customers the chance to buy shares in a work by British street artist Banksy at $20 a share. Those shares hit $34 earlier this month, a 70% gain that valued the piece at $722,000, Otis said.

Investors tend to be aged 25 to 45, with disposable incomes of $100,000-plus, Otis founder and Chief Executive Michael Karnjanaprakorn told Reuters.

He said the most expensive item on Otis is a 1986 Basketball card set by sports cards maker Fleer — sold two months ago at $10 a share, it has since surged 305% to over $40.

Reuters could not independently verify the price gains.

‘DON’T INVEST YOUR PENSION’

At another collectables platform, Rally, the number of users is doubling every 30 days, according to CEO George Leimer. He said “several hundred thousand” investors used the platform but declined to be more specific.

The platform has also seen sought-after Pokemon cards surge into six-figures, Leimer said.

“The drive behind this is very similar to what we are seeing in the rest of the retail investing world,” he said, pointing to the surge in popularity of Robinhood and other such apps.

But few seem to be banking profits; Leimer said the percentage of investors who withdrew their winnings rather than reinvest was in the “low single digits”.

As more punters flock to alternative assets, many warn of risks.

John-Paul Smith, a former senior equity strategist at Deutsche Bank, now dabbles in buying northern British art. He sees little difference between the behaviour of some “alternatives” investors and the equity frenzy.

“Banksy is pure momentum, it’s like a hot tech stock,” he said. “The psychology is similar in any market.”

But conceptually, it seems “less foolish” to buy unconventional assets today than at any time in the 30 years Smith says he has followed markets. Not only are stocks expensive, vast central bank and government stimulus will eventually spur inflation, he said.

He urges investors to differentiate between what might be a passion or a hobby and an investment. If they set out solely to profit, they probably won’t, given how esoteric each part of markets like art can be.

“I would not advise anybody (to) put their pension in,” he said, a stance also taken by Pokemon investor Browning.

(Additional reporting by Marc Jones; editing by Sujata Rao and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)

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Show us the plan: Investors push companies to come clean on climate

By Simon Jessop, Matthew Green and Ross Kerber

LONDON/BOSTON (Reuters) – In the past, shareholder votes on the environment were rare and easily brushed aside. Things could look different in the annual meeting season starting next month, when companies are set to face the most investor resolutions tied to climate change in years.

Those votes are likely to win more support than in previous years from large asset managers seeking clarity on how executives plan to adapt and prosper in a low-carbon world, according to Reuters interviews with more than a dozen activist investors and fund managers.

In the United States, shareholders have filed 79 climate-related resolutions so far, compared with 72 for all of last year and 67 in 2019, according to data compiled by the Sustainable Investments Institute and shared with Reuters. The institute estimated the count could reach 90 this year.

Topics to be put to a vote at annual general meetings (AGMs) include calls for emissions limits, pollution reports and “climate audits” that show the financial impact of climate change on their businesses.

A broad theme is to press corporations across sectors, from oil and transport to food and drink, to detail how they plan to reduce their carbon footprints in coming years, in line with government pledges to cut emissions to net zero by 2050.

“Net-zero targets for 2050 without a credible plan including short-term targets is greenwashing, and shareholders must hold them to account,” said billionaire British hedge fund manager Chris Hohn, who is pushing companies worldwide to hold a recurring shareholder vote on their climate plans.

Many companies say they already provide plenty of information about climate issues. Yet some activists say they see signs more executives are in a dealmaking mood this year.

Royal Dutch Shell said on Feb. 11 it would become the first oil and gas major to offer such a vote, following similar announcements from Spanish airports operator Aena, UK consumer goods company Unilever and U.S. rating agency Moody’s.

While most resolutions are non-binding, they often spur changes with even 30% or more support as executives look to satisfy as many investors as possible.

“The demands for increased disclosure and target-setting are much more pointed than they were in 2020,” said Daniele Vitale, the London-based head of governance for Georgeson, which advises corporations on shareholder views.

COMPANIES WARM THE WORLD

While more and more companies are issuing net-zero targets for 2050, in line with goals set out in the 2015 Paris climate accord, few have published interim targets. A study https://www.southpole.com/news/survey-just-1-in-10-businesses-have-backed-up-net-zero-ambitions-with-science-based-targets from sustainability consultancy South Pole showed just 10% of 120 firms it polled, from varied sectors, had done so.

“There’s too much ambiguity and lack of clarity on the exact journey and route that companies are going to take, and how quickly we can actually expect movement,” said Mirza Baig, head of investment stewardship at Aviva Investors.

Data analysis from Swiss bank J Safra Sarasin, shared with Reuters, shows the scale of the collective challenge.

Sarasin studied the emissions of the roughly 1,500 firms in the MSCI World Index, a broad proxy for the world’s listed companies. It calculated that if companies globally did not curb their emissions rate, they would raise global temperatures by more than 3 degrees Celsius by 2050.

That is well short of the Paris accord goal of limiting warming to “well below” 2C, preferably 1.5C.

https://tmsnrt.rs/3iJoUC8

At an industry level, there are large differences, the study found: If every company emitted at the same level as the energy sector, for example, the temperature rise would be 5.8C, with the materials sector – including metals and mining – on course for 5.5C and consumer staples – including food and drink – 4.7C.

https://tmsnrt.rs/3c13GhC

The calculations are mostly based on companies’ reported emissions levels in 2019, the latest full year analysed, and cover Scope 1 and 2 emissions – those caused directly by a company, plus the production of the electricity it buys and uses.

‘TAILWIND ON CLIMATE’

Sectors with high carbon emissions are likely to face the most investor pressure for clarity.

In January, for example, ExxonMobil – long an energy industry laggard in setting climate goals – disclosed its Scope 3 emissions, those connected to use of its products.

This prompted the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (Calpers) to withdraw a shareholder resolution seeking the information.

Calpers’ Simiso Nzima, head of corporate governance for the $444 billion pension fund, said he saw 2021 as a promising year for climate concerns, with a higher likelihood of other companies also reaching agreements with activist investors.

“You’re seeing a tailwind in terms of climate change.”

However, Exxon has asked the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for permission to skip votes on four other shareholder proposals, three related to climate matters, according to filings to the SEC. They cite reasons such as the company having already “substantially implemented” reforms.

An Exxon spokesman said it had ongoing discussions with its stakeholders, which led to the emissions disclosure. He declined to comment on the requests to skip votes, as did the SEC, which had not yet ruled on Exxon’s requests as of late Tuesday.

‘A CRUMB BUT A SIGN’

Given the influence of large shareholders, activists are hoping for more from BlackRock, the world’s biggest investor with $8.7 trillion under management, which has promised a tougher approach to climate issues.

Last week, BlackRock called for boards to come up with a climate plan, release emissions data and make robust short-term reduction targets, or risk seeing directors voted down at the AGM.

It backed a resolution at Procter & Gamble’s AGM, unusually held in October, which asked the company to report on efforts to eliminate deforestation in its supply chains, helping it pass with 68% support.

“It’s a crumb but we hope it’s a sign of things to come” from BlackRock, said Kyle Kempf, spokesman for resolution sponsor Green Century Capital Management in Boston.

Asked for more details about its 2021 plans, such as if it might support Hohn’s resolutions, a BlackRock spokesman referred to prior guidance that it would “follow a case-by-case approach in assessing each proposal on its merits”.

Europe’s biggest asset manager, Amundi, said last week it, too, would back more resolutions.

Vanguard, the world’s second-biggest investor with $7.1 trillion under management, seemed less certain, though.

Lisa Harlow, Vanguard’s stewardship leader for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, called it “really difficult to say” whether its support for climate resolutions this year would be higher than its traditional rate of backing one in ten.

‘THERE WILL BE FIGHTS’

Britain’s Hohn, founder of $30 billion hedge fund TCI, aims to establish a regular mechanism to judge climate progress via annual shareholder votes.

In a “Say on Climate” resolution, investors ask a company to provide a detailed net zero plan, including short-term targets, and put it to an annual non-binding vote. If investors aren’t satisfied, they will then be in a stronger position to justify voting down directors, the plan holds.

Early signs suggest the drive is gaining momentum.

Hohn has already filed at least seven resolutions through TCI. The Children’s Investment Fund Foundation, which Hohn founded, is working with campaign groups and asset managers to file more than 100 resolutions over the next two AGM seasons in the United States, Europe, Canada, Japan and Australia.

“Of course, not all companies will support the Say on Climate,” Hohn told pension funds and insurance companies in November. “There will be fights, but we can win the votes.”

(Additional reporting by Sonali Paul in Sydney, Francesca Landini in Milan, Clara-Laeila Laudette in Madrid and Shadia Nasralla in London; Editing by Katy Daigle and Pravin Char)

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Oil rises on positive forecasts, slow U.S. output restart

By Bozorgmehr Sharafedin

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices rose on Tuesday, underpinned by the likely easing of COVID-19 lockdowns around the world, positive economic forecasts and lower output as U.S. supplies were slow to return after a deep freeze in Texas shut down crude production.

Brent crude was up 36 cents, or 0.5%, at $65.60 a barrel by 1212 GMT, and U.S. crude rose 39 cents, or 0.6%, to $62.09 a barrel.

Both contracts rose more than $1 earlier in the session.

“Vaccine news is helping oil, as the likely removal of mobility restrictions over the coming months on the back of vaccine rollouts should further boost the oil demand and price recovery,” said UBS oil analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

Commerzbank analyst Eugen Weinberg said optimistic oil price forecasts issued by leading U.S. brokers had also contributed to the latest upswing in prices.

Goldman Sachs expects Brent prices to reach $70 per barrel in the second quarter from the $60 it predicted previously, and $75 in the third quarter from $65 forecast earlier.

Morgan Stanley expects Brent crude to climb to $70 in the third quarter.

“New COVID-19 cases are falling fast globally, mobility statistics are bottoming out and are starting to improve, and in non-OECD countries, refineries are already running as hard as before COVID-19,” Morgan Stanley said in a note.

Bank of America said Brent prices could temporarily spike to $70 per barrel in the second quarter.

Disruptions in Texas caused by last week’s winter storm also supported oil prices. Some U.S. shale producers forecast lower oil output in the first quarter.

Stockpiles of U.S. crude oil and refined products likely declined last week, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.

A weaker dollar also provided some support to oil as crude prices tend to move inversely to the U.S. currency.

(Reporting by Bozorgmehr Sharafedin in London, additional reporting by Jessica Jaganathan in Singapore; editing by David Evans and John Stonestreet)

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